Key takeaways
- Recharge data on 1,800 supplement brands shows 57.6% of subscribers still active at order 3, while Skio puts it at 20 to 30%.
- Order 3 retention is subscribers who paid order 3 divided by subscribers who paid order 1, in the same cohort, counted by order.
- For supplements on a monthly plan, RetainUP rates order 3 retention under 45% as poor and over 72% as excellent.
Ask two subscription apps what good retention looks like for a supplement brand.
Skio says 70 to 80% of supplement subscribers churn before order 3. So 20 to 30% are left.
Recharge looked at 1,800 supplement brands. 57.6% were still there at order 3.
Same product category. Same order. The answers are twice apart.
Loop adds a third number: 68% of all churn happens in the first three orders.
Why nobody agrees
Every tool calls a different number “retention”.
Shopify shows a returning customer rate. Lifetimely and Triple Whale show repeat purchase rate. Your subscription app shows 90-day retention or monthly churn.
Public brands like Hims & Hers report revenue retention, which counts dollars, not people.
Even when two tools say “order 3”, they count it differently.
Some count subscriptions, some count subscribers. One customer with two products is two subscriptions.
Some count a paused subscriber as retained. Some count a failed payment still in retry as active.
And most count by month. At month three, a monthly subscriber has paid three times and a quarterly one once.
So a number without its definition is just a number.
The one I use: Order 3 retention
Subscribers who paid order 3, divided by subscribers who paid order 1. Same cohort.
Why order 3:
- Order 2 can be an accident. They forgot they subscribed, or never knew. Order 3 is paid by someone who knew what they bought.
- Most churn has already happened. Loop puts it at 68% of all churn.
- It decides payback. At supplement CAC, order 3 is often the break-even order.
- It counts by order, not by month. Monthly and quarterly plans compare fairly.
The benchmarks
Three sources. Two published, one ours.
1. Recharge
1,800 supplement brands, July 2025 to June 2026, counted by order. The biggest sample with a published definition. Read the report
Their 2nd reorder is order 3. 57.6% make it. By order 7 it’s under 10%.
Supplements also lose more people at the very first reorder than any other category.
2. YOCTO
100+ subscription accounts, January to August 2026. Read the report
Their median brand keeps 77% to order 3. The weakest keep 49%, the best 83%.
Supplements hold up to order 3 like every other category, then fall harder. Only 21.5% reach order 6, against 46.3% for food and beverage.
That’s 20 points above Recharge at order 3, on what looks like the same order. Again, the counting is different.
3. Ours
From both and the cohorts we see at clients, these are the bands we use for supplements on a monthly plan:
| Rating | Order 3 retention |
|---|---|
| Poor | under 45% |
| Average | 45 to 62% |
| Good | 62 to 72% |
| Excellent | over 72% |
These are our bands, not an industry standard. Nobody has published one on a clear definition yet.
Where does yours sit?
If it’s low, check order 2 first.
If order 2 is weak, look at onboarding and the offer. If order 2 is fine and order 3 drops, look at results, routine and the price step after the first discount.
Under 45%: there’s real room to improve.
45 to 72%: you’re doing well, and there’s still room.
Above 72%: excellent.
Book a call and we’ll fix your order 3
One email a week on subscription retention: the numbers, the strategy, and what to fix first.
Rahi Jain
Rahi Jain is a subscription LTV specialist who helps DTC brands maximize their LTV from subscriptions.
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